Buying sneakers as a gift when you don't know their size: what the sales data says

You want to buy someone sneakers, you cannot ask their size without spoiling the surprise, and a wrong guess means a return you may not be able to make. The usual advice is "just guess a 10". How good is that guess?

Nike Air Force 1 '07 'Triple White'Photo: GOATAsics Gel 1130 'Black Pure Silver'Photo: GOATAir Jordan 4 Retro 'Toro Bravo' 2026Photo: GOATNew Balance 9060 'Triple Black Suede'Photo: GOAT

We looked at the 90 days to October 3 of GOAT resale sales. Half of men's pairs sold, 50.8%, were a size 9, 9.5, 10, 10.5 or 11, and size 10 alone was 11.7%. So a guess in that band is the most likely to fit. But about half of people sit outside it, so the better plan is to find the size without asking.

The most common sizes are 9 to 11 for men and 7 to 9 for women

Widen the band and the odds improve. Sizes 8 to 12 were 77.4% of men's pairs and 7 to 13 were 90.4%. Under size 8 was 13.2%, and size 12 or larger was 17.5%.

Women's listings ("Wmns" or "Women's" in the name) sit lower. Across 60,583 women's pairs, sizes 7 to 9 were 49.8%, and 6 to 9 were 63.2%. The most-sold single size was 8, at 11.9%. Women's and men's numbering differ by about 1.5 (a men's 9 is generally labelled a women's 10.5), so a women's 8 is roughly a men's 6.5. The women's curve sits lower because the feet are smaller, not because of the numbering.

If you must guess, a men's 10 or a women's 8 is the single most common size. Neither is more than about one pair in eight.

Size runs differ by brand, so the guess does too

The average hides a split. We covered it in our size curve post; here it is for the 90 days to October 3:

New Balance, adidas and ASICS sold far more of their men's-size pairs under a size 8 than Jordan did. Many of these are unisex shoes, so some of that may be women buying in men's sizes, which our data cannot separate. For those brands a size 10 covers a smaller share of buyers than it does for Jordan.

Find their size without asking

Resale data cannot do this part, so these are plain tips:

• Check a pair they own. The size is printed on a label inside the shoe, under the tongue. Match the brand, because sizing differs between makers.
• Look at a box or receipt if you see one around the house.
• Ask someone who knows, such as a partner, a roommate or a parent.
• Use the pair they wear every day, not a dress shoe, as the one to match.

Six shoes that sold across many sizes at $75 to $200

These six each sold at least 1,700 pairs in the 90 days, at a median resale price from $75 to $200. They are what sells, not a ranking of gifts:

The ASICS and 9060 rows have the lowest share in 9 to 11 because more of their buyers wear small sizes. For more picks by price band, see our sneaker gift guide.

Last holiday, prices moved a few points but volume more than doubled

Last holiday season, across GOAT and StockX sales of 14,214 sneakers, the same shoe's median price ran from 1.6% below its September-October level in late October to 2.9% above it in the week of December 15, then 2.7% below in the week of January 19 (see our holiday planning guide). That is a few points, not a surge. Weekly sales reached 2.20 times a normal week by December 8; we cannot see stock levels. That is past data, not a forecast.

Resale usually means no easy return

Retailers often let you swap a pair for the right size. Resale marketplaces generally do not work that way, and a pair bought as a gift may not be returnable. Read the marketplace's own return and authentication policy for the pair you are about to buy before you pay. We have not summarised any marketplace's terms here.

What this means

The odds favour a men's 9 to 11 or a women's 7 to 9, but the data cannot say which size a particular person wears. Use the shoe finder to narrow down a style, the price checker to see what a pair costs, and the gift guide for ideas by price band.