Does Sneaker Resale Predict Nike Stock?
No. Over 98 weeks, the best of four direction tests was resale price index calling the stock's move over the next week 56% of the time (54 of 97; 95% interval 46–65%). A coin flip gets 50%, and that range includes it (exact test p = 0.310). None of the tests in which resale moves first holds up once corrected for the number of tests run.
From November 4, 2024 to September 21, 2026, Nike's share price moved -50% (NKE, USD 71.86 to 35.75), while what Nike, Jordan and Converse sneakers resold for on GOAT and StockX, compared shoe for shoe, moved -6.1 points on a 100 scale.
Share price vs same-shoe resale price, weekly
Resale index: each sale divided by that shoe's median price over the whole period, averaged per week, times 100. Comparing each shoe with itself keeps a week from looking expensive just because pricier shoes sold that week.
Reported revenue vs resale, by quarter
What Nike reported for each quarter (NIKE, Inc. revenue growth (reported, USD)), next to what its sneakers resold for over the same dates. The resale column is the same-shoe price index averaged over the quarter; the last column compares it with the same quarter a year earlier, which our data covers for 2 quarters so far.
| Quarter | Company growth | Resale price index | vs year earlier (points) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec-Feb 2025 | -9.3% | 102.0 | n/a | source |
| Mar-May 2025 | -12% | 103.2 | n/a | source |
| Jun-Aug 2025 | +1.1% | 103.8 | n/a | source |
| Sep-Nov 2025 | +0.6% | 106.5 | n/a | source |
| Dec-Feb 2026 | +0.1% | 105.9 | +3.9 | source |
| Mar-May 2026 | -1.1% | 103.8 | +0.6 | source |
Company figures: reported; SEC EDGAR 10-Q/10-K, fourth quarter derived as full year minus nine months. With 6 quarters, and 2 with a year-earlier comparison, there are too few points for a statistical test; read this as a side-by-side record, which grows every quarter. Resale volume is left out here because the number of products our data covers has grown over time, which inflates year-over-year volume without any change in demand.
Did resale call the stock's direction?
For each week (or 4-week block) we noted whether resale went up or down, then whether the stock went the same way over the next week (or next 4 weeks). Blocks do not overlap, so each call counts once. p is an exact binomial test against 50%; q corrects for the 22 tests on this page (Benjamini–Hochberg), and a result needs q below 0.05.
| Signal | Stock move | Called right | 95% interval | Calls | p | q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resale price index | next week | 56% | 46–65% | 54 of 97 | 0.310 | 0.97 |
| Resale volume | next week | 48% | 39–58% | 47 of 97 | 0.839 | 1.00 |
| Resale price index | next 4 weeks | 44% | 26–63% | 10 of 23 | 0.678 | 1.00 |
| Resale volume | next 4 weeks | 48% | 29–67% | 11 of 23 | 1.000 | 1.00 |
Week-to-week correlation, with lags
Correlations of weekly log changes, with resale shifted up to four weeks before (positive lag) or after the stock. Weekly series are autocorrelated, so p-values use an effective sample size (Pyper & Peterman) rather than the raw week count; on unrelated but autocorrelated series the textbook test flags about 35% as significant, this one 5%. Brackets are 95% intervals; bars are solid only where q < 0.05.
| Lag (weeks) | r, resale volume [95% CI] | q | r, resale price [95% CI] | q |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | -0.07 [-0.27, +0.14] | 1.00 | +0.01 [-0.21, +0.23] | 1.00 |
| -3 | -0.13 [-0.32, +0.07] | 0.87 | -0.05 [-0.26, +0.17] | 1.00 |
| -2 | +0.19 [-0.01, +0.38] | 0.64 | +0.07 [-0.14, +0.28] | 1.00 |
| -1 | +0.12 [-0.08, +0.31] | 0.87 | +0.18 [-0.04, +0.38] | 0.67 |
| 0 | +0.01 [-0.19, +0.20] | 1.00 | -0.04 [-0.25, +0.17] | 1.00 |
| +1 | -0.03 [-0.23, +0.17] | 1.00 | -0.01 [-0.22, +0.21] | 1.00 |
| +2 | +0.04 [-0.16, +0.24] | 1.00 | +0.02 [-0.19, +0.24] | 1.00 |
| +3 | -0.05 [-0.25, +0.15] | 1.00 | +0.05 [-0.16, +0.27] | 1.00 |
| +4 | +0.20 [-0.00, +0.39] | 0.64 | -0.17 [-0.38, +0.05] | 0.67 |
How this is measured
Stock: Yahoo Finance, adjusted close, last trading day of each week (NKE, USD). Resale: completed GOAT and StockX sales of Nike, Jordan and Converse footwear (apparel, cards and collectibles excluded), products with at least 20 sales, weeks starting Monday with at least 100 sales; the current week is left out. All changes are log changes. q-values are Benjamini–Hochberg within this company's 22 tests; the same tests are also corrected across all five companies (110 tests), which is the standard the headline answer uses. Resale volume depends partly on how many products our data covers, which changes over time; the same-shoe price index does not. Updated daily. Observational analysis of past data, not investment advice.
Other companies: adidas · Puma · ASICS · VF Corp · all five compared
Frequently Asked Questions
Do sneaker resale sales predict Nike stock?
Not in our data. Over 98 weeks we tested whether weekly resale prices or volume for Nike, Jordan and Converse called the direction or size of Nike's next stock move (NKE). The best test was right 56% of the time (95% interval 46–65%), which includes a coin flip's 50%, and no resale-first test survives correction for multiple testing. Observational analysis, not investment advice.
Does Nike's stock price move with sneaker resale prices?
Not closely. Nike's stock moved -50% from November 4, 2024 to September 21, 2026 while a same-shoe resale price index for its sneakers moved -6.1 points.