Which sneakers hold up after release? Our first Sunday ranking

Title shortened November 4, 2026. The first version named tiers and said "a quarter below"; the tiers are in the table below, as recorded November 1.

Nike Kobe 6 Protro DodgersPhoto: StockXNike Mind 001 Slide Black Chrome (Women's)Photo: StockXVans LX Old Skool Archive Flame GreenPhoto: StockXJordan 1 Low SE Olive GreyPhoto: StockX

Every release gets the same question three months later: was it worth paying retail, or did it end up cheaper on the resale sites? We now answer it the same way for every model, every Sunday. A release "holds up" when its median completed sale 12 weeks after its first week with 20+ sales is at or above its retail price. That is the whole test, fixed before we looked at a single row.

Update, November 2. This post first described week 12 as the "12th week after launch". The anchor we use is the first Monday-to-Sunday week with 20 or more recorded sales, and when pairs sold early (pre-release or regional pairs), that week can fall weeks or months before the general release. The Kobe 6 Protro 'Dodgers' is the clearest case: its first 20-sale week was the week of March 10, 2025, with 63 sales, while its "week 12" (the week of June 2) had 3,105 sales, so the general release fell between the two and that week-12 price is closer to a launch-week price. Across the 705 releases behind the 28 ranked models, 173 had at least twice as many sales in week 12 as in their first 20-sale week (66 had five times as many), and 14 of the 28 median releases that lead the rows were busier in week 12 than in that first week; all six Kobe 6 releases were. The medians and sample sizes are unchanged; the wording now says what was measured: 12 weeks after the first week with 20+ sales, not 12 weeks after the drop. Before the next issue (November 8) we will re-anchor on the busiest week within eight weeks of the first 20-sale week (the rule the model pages' release curves use), re-run these rows under both anchors with tools/ranking_recheck.py, and append every tier change here.

On that test, the Nike Kobe 6 Protro, the Nike Mind 001 slides and the Vans Old Skool collabs hold up; the mainline Jordans do not. The median Kobe 6 release, the 'Dodgers', sold for $250 in that twelfth week on a $180 retail (3,105 sales that week). The median Jordan 3 release, the 2026 'True Blue', sold for $168 on a $230 retail (808 sales). Across all 736 releases we could score, the typical one sold 5% under retail at week 12, and 45% sold at or above it.

New tiers every Sunday. This is the first issue; the rows are frozen in data/ranking_2026-11-01.json and will be re-checked on November 15 as more sales load.

The tiers

Each model's score is the median of its releases' week-12 price against retail, and each row is led by the release that sits at that median, so you can see a real pair, its retail, and what it sold for. Models needed five releases with a scorable week 12 to be ranked; none of the 28 ranked models has fewer than 100 week-12 sales.

The top of the board is small drops and signatures, not Jordans

The three models that clearly beat the rest (they pass a test against all other ranked releases after correcting for 28 comparisons, q < 0.05) are the Nike Mind 001 (20 releases, all 20 above retail at week 12, median +93%: the women's 'Black Chrome' slide went from $95 retail to $183), the Vans Old Skool (23 releases, 21 above retail, +44%: the LX 'Archive Flame Green' from $105 to $152, on 18 sales, so read that row as a direction) and the Nike Kobe 6 Protro (6 releases, all above retail, +39%; the 'Dodgers' from $180 to $250 on 3,105 week-12 sales, the 'Jalen Brunson Statue of Liberty' from $200 to $617 on 84).

Two more clear the bar with a less certain margin. The Dunk SB (33 releases, median +10%, 19 of 33 above retail, q 0.018: the 'CSEF' from $125 to $138) and the Samba (43 releases, median +2%, q 0.047: the Bape 'Black White Gum' from $160 to $164). The Converse SHAI 001, Air Max 1 and Superstar sit in the top tier on their medians, but their intervals cross zero: too few releases, or too spread out, to call them clearly above the market.

The sneakers that hold up at week 12 are the ones that were hard to get at retail. The ones that do not are the ones everyone could buy.

The mainline Jordans sit below retail at week 12

The Air Jordan 1 has 88 scorable releases, more than any other model, and only 24 of them (27%) sold at or above retail in week 12. Its median release, the 'Low SE Olive Grey', went from $130 to $96. The Air Jordan 3 (23 releases, 22% above; the 2026 'True Blue' $230 to $168 on 808 sales) and the plain Dunk (48 releases, 27% above; the 'Gore-Tex Triple Black' $150 to $114) are the other two models the test calls clearly below the rest. The Air Jordan 4 (23 releases, -18%; the women's 'Forget Me Not' $200 to $164 on 567 sales) and the Air Jordan 6 (8 releases, -26%; 'Cap and Gown' $215 to $159) are below retail on their medians, with intervals wide enough that we do not call them clearly below.

The one Jordan near retail is the Air Jordan 5 (14 releases, median -1%: the 2026 'Black University Blue' sold for $218 on a $220 retail, 590 sales). That is a model whose wide interval (-17% to +61%) says the releases split: the 'Awake NY Arctic Pink' sold at +204%, the women's 'Luminous Green' at -51%.

What this means if you are deciding whether to pay retail

The tier a model sits in is a description of its last two years of releases, not a promise about the next one. Within every model the releases spread widely: the Air Force 1 (84 releases, median -11%) holds the Lil Yachty 'Concrete' at +275% and the 'Wheatgrass Camo' at -52%. What the board tells you is the base rate. If the model you are looking at sits in the bottom tier, most of its releases could be bought for less than retail three months after their first 20-sale week; if it sits in the top tier, most could not. Open the model's page to see its own after-release curve (Air Jordan 1, Air Jordan 3, Nike Kobe 6), or the best-time-to-sell tool for every model's path from launch week to week 26.

Fourteen more models had a scorable week 12 for fewer than five releases and are listed in the data file, not ranked: the Air Max 270, 574, Air Jordan 14 and Vans Knu Skool above retail on one or two releases each, the UltraBoost (-57% on three) and 2002R (-30% on three) below. The next issue is next Sunday, with a week more of complete days and this week's rows re-checked.

Re-run November 2, 2026, under the new launch week: the rows above stay as published. We re-ran them on the same record, cut at 2026-10-28, counting week 12 from each shoe's busiest week within eight weeks of its first 20-sale week instead of from that first week. Releases whose week 12 sold at least twice their launch week fell from 185 of 736 (25.1%) to 12 of 703 (1.7%), which is what the change was for. The market barely moved against retail: -5.2% on 736 releases, -6.2% on 703 (fewer because a later week 12 has not all finished). 6 of 28 models changed tier: Superstar Above retail (+5.5%) to Around retail (+0.0%); Air Max 90 Around retail (+3.9%) to Above retail (+7.2%); ASICS Gel-NYC Around retail (+3.1%) to Above retail (+11.9%); Nike P-6000 Below retail (-11.3%) to Around retail (-3.2%); Air Jordan 6 Well below retail (-26.0%) to Below retail (-20.5%); Air Jordan 1 Well below retail (-26.2%) to Below retail (-23.4%). The 990 drops out of the ranked list: only 4 of its releases have a complete week 12 under the later count, and a model needs 5.Nike Mind 001, Vans Old Skool, Nike Kobe 6 and Converse SHAI 001 keep ranks 1 to 4, and Nike Kobe 6 stays above retail. The named shoe at each model's median changed on 21 rows: Nike Mind 001: Nike Mind 001 Slide Black Chrome (Women's) ($183) to Nike Mind 001 Slide Sail ($180); Vans Old Skool: Vans LX Old Skool Archive Flame Green ($152) to Vans Premium Old Skool Charms Black Grey ($198); Air Max 1: Nike Air Max 1 Atlanta Braves City Connect (2026) ($169) to Nike Air Max 1 '87 SP Supreme Varsity Purple ($190); Dunk SB: Nike SB Dunk Low CSEF ($138) to Nike SB Dunk Low Riot Skateshop ($146); Superstar: adidas Superstar CLOT by Edison Chen x Bape Off White ($232) to adidas Superstar Vintage Bape White Black ($160); Air Max 90: Nike Air Max 90 Leopard Sanddrift Black (Women's) ($146) to Nike Air Max 90 Miami Dolphins ($156); Puma Speedcat: Puma Speedcat Ballet Rosé White ($93) to Puma Speedcat TTF Dark Chocolate Frosted Ivory ($113); ASICS Gel-NYC: ASICS Gel-NYC White Smoke Grey ($134) to ASICS Gel-NYC Ivory Forest Night ($146); Samba: adidas Samba Bape Black White Gum ($164) to adidas Samba OG Snakeskin Maroon Cream White (Women's) ($109); ASICS Gel-1130: ASICS Gel-1130 Neon Pack Green (Women's) ($96) to ASICS Gel-1130 Cream Barely Rose (Women's) ($107); Air Jordan 5: Jordan 5 Retro Black University Blue (2026) ($218) to Jordan 5 Retro Wings (2025) (Women's) ($213); Gazelle: adidas Gazelle Indoor CLOT By Edison Chen Collegiate Navy ($152) to adidas Gazelle Indoor Wonder Quartz Velvet (Women's) ($94); Air Force 1: Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 LV8 Bred ($111) to Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 LV8 Black Gum Light Brown White ($110); Nike P-6000: Nike P-6000 Light Army Cargo Khaki ($106) to Nike P-6000 Sail Light Bone Cream (Women's) ($121); New Balance 9060: New Balance 9060 Fluorescent ($132) to New Balance 9060 Grey Jet Black ($130); Air Max 95: Nike Air Max 95 OG Big Bubble Blue Tint (Women's) ($165) to Nike Air Max 95 Big Bubble Palace ($170); ASICS Gel-Kayano 14: ASICS Gel-Kayano 14 Birch Pure Silver ($126) to ASICS Gel-Kayano 14 Kith Marvel vs. Capcom Wolverine ($190); Air Jordan 4: Jordan 4 Retro Forget Me Not (Women's) ($164) to Jordan 4 Retro Valentine's Day Sierra Red (Women's) ($176); Dunk: Nike Dunk Low Gore-Tex Triple Black ($114) to Nike Dunk Low Retro Khaki Team Red Pearl White (Women's) ($100); Air Jordan 1: Jordan 1 Low SE Olive Grey ($96) to Jordan 1 Low SE Somos Eternos ($111); Nike Vomero 5: Nike Zoom Vomero 5 Elemental Pink (Women's) ($112) to Nike Zoom Vomero 5 Metallic Silver ($126). From the November 8 issue the ranking counts from this launch week.